Abstract

The dynamics of tick-borne infections incorporates a series of non-linear phenomena operating in the transmission processes between ticks, hosts and pathogens. Ticks feed on a diverse range of hosts that vary in their competence to transmit the pathogen and vary in the routes of transmission.

We explore the consequence of variations in the relative abundance of the two host species (deer and rodents) and the interaction with the transmission routes on the persistence and success of Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis in Trentino (northern Italy). More generally, we wish to explore the consequences of host abundance and non-linearities in the transmission processes on the likelihood of tick-borne diseases emerging as significant threats to human and wildlife health.

We develop a general model on tick borne infections,¹ predict the relative conditions that would lead to disease persistence (R₀>1) and then test the model against surveillance data we have collected from northern Italy.

Literature Cited

1.  Rosà, R., Pugliese, A., Norman, R. & Hudson, P.J. 2003 Thresholds for disease persistence in models for tick-borne infections including non-viraemic transmission, extended feeding and tick aggregation. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 224:359–376.