1Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA; 2Mammal Research Institute, Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa; 3Kruger National Park, South Africa; 4Department of Zoology, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA;5 Biophysics Graduate Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA
Abstract
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB, Mycobacterium bovis), an airborne bacterial pathogen, is re-emerging in wildlife and livestock worldwide. We study slow-moving epidemics of bTB in the buffalo (Syncerus caffer) populations of the Kruger National Park (KNP) and Hluhluwe-Umfolozi Park (HUP) in South Africa to develop a better understanding of disease spread in structured populations. The prevalence of BTB continues to increase in KNP, and the epidemic front is moving northwards from its introduction from cattle in the south. Buffalo are a reservoir host, maintaining the disease at high prevalence (∼60%), while predators such as lions and leopards appear to be spillover hosts. It is unclear how bTB, with its wide range of potential hosts, will affect these ecosystems. As an exotic disease, managers would like to control or eradicate this disease via culling, vaccination, or some combination of the two. Preliminary modeling and data suggest that neither vaccination nor culling is likely to eradicate the disease individually, but Hluhluwe-Umfolozi Park has begun to control prevalence by removing positive animals. We combine mathematic models, field data, buffalo and bTB genetics, and GIS to assess buffalo management options as well as the probable impacts.